China retail: impressive growth starts to moderate
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12 August 2010 | Published by Verdict
While most consumers in the West continue to be cautious over spending, China’s retail sales in July rose by an impressive 17.9% year on year according to the National Bureau of Statistics. This brings the total growth for the first seven months of the year to 18.2% compared to the same period in 2009.
However, despite the rosy appearance of the headline number growth in retail sales has showing a slowing trend over the past couple of months and has done so against a backdrop of rising consumer inflation, meaning underlying volume sales are weakening. Verdict believes that a moderation in growth will continue for the rest of this year.
“Over the early part of this year the government stimulated consumers into spending but the effects of this are now beginning to wear off and we’re seeing growth return to more normalised levels. Unless a further stimulus is injected, we are likely to see sales growth slow a bit further, especially in areas such as domestic appliances” comments Neil Saunders, Consulting Director of Verdict.
Verdict forecasts that Chinese retail sales growth in H2 will average at 16.9% per month compared to an average of 18.3% in H1.
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Further Information
Neil Saunders is available for comment
More information is available from the Datamonitor Group Media Team. Please contact Mary Vingoe on +44 161 238 4082 or mvingoe@datamonitor.com.
About Verdict
Verdict Research is the leading authority on UK and European retail markets. Our research publications, consultancy services and news bulletins offer unparalleled analysis on a large variety of retail sectors, issues, geographies and demographics.
Verdict is part of the Datamonitor Group.
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